Over the past year, the market's front-loaded investment in AI CapEx has significantly outpaced initial expectations. Whether in computing power, chips, energy, or infrastructure, capital expenditure has been massively released ahead of schedule in the short term. In contrast, AI's substantive contribution to profitability and productivity will likely take a longer cycle to materialize. This creates a tension in the time dimension: short-term heavy asset investment vs. long-term return realization.
Entering 2026, a rare phenomenon has emerged in the market—Mega Forces are once again dominating the narrative. Compared to the "diversified, balanced, low-volatility" asset allocation logic of past years, capital is now being forced to make directional choices. In this context, global asset allocation institutions like BlackRock can no longer rely solely on broad diversification but must increase concentration and assume higher risk exposure on key trends. This choice implies two things: capital investment intensification (overweight in specific directions) and leverage inevitably rising (the role of debt being re-amplified). This itself constitutes an important source of investment opportunities: Who is adding leverage? Where is leverage being directed? Which assets can absorb capital density "before long-term realization"? Meanwhile, assets previously viewed as stable diversifiers are undergoing a role transformation, gradually evolving into directional bets. A typical example is the 10-year U.S. Treasury—under fiscal deficits, supply pressure, and changes in term premium, its risk attributes are being repriced.
Core Investment Focus
In the current environment, capital is primarily concentrated in the following areas: core robotics components (actuators, sensors, control systems), batteries and energy storage, semiconductors and critical chips, infrastructure (data centers, networks, computing foundations), power and energy systems, electric vehicles (EV) and their supply chains.
The common characteristics of these assets are: high capital density, long-cycle returns, and "irreplaceability" for AI and automation trends.
Core Thesis
The current market is not pricing for short-term profitability but is betting in advance on the reconstruction of future production functions. AI's value realization has not yet fully manifested, but the capital structure, leverage usage, and asset allocation surrounding it have already begun to change profoundly. This is precisely the stage where investment opportunities and risks are simultaneously amplified.